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October 23, 2004

Weekend Homework Assignment!

For our take-home assignment this weekend, why doesn't everyone read or re-read Michael Ledeen's latest article "Iran, When?" and follow it up with a 1 - 2 paragraph response as to why you think President Bush and Senator Kerry have spoken so little about freedom and human rights in Iran, especially since the regime of Ayatollahs is by far the biggest sponsor of terrorism throughout the world and in Iraq, and by any objective standards, a far greater threat than Saddam Hussein ever was.

This is not to say that it wasn't necessary to remove Saddam's regime, but rather we would like to get your input as to where you think the Mullahs and their repressive regime fit into the puzzle, and possible reasons why this most overt member of the Axis of Evil yet to be addressed by either candidate.

Iran, When?
The war on terror cannot be won without addressing Iran.

"Months before the liberation of Iraq I wrote that we were about to have our great national debate on the war against the terror masters, and it was going to be the wrong debate. Wrong because it was going to focus obsessively on Iraq, thereby making it impossible to raise the fundamental strategic issues. Alas, that forecast was correct, and we're still stuck in the strategic quagmire we created. Up to our throats. So let's try again to get it right.

Like Afghanistan before it, Iraq is only one theater in a regional war. We were attacked by a network of terrorist organizations supported by several countries, of whom the most important were Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. President Bush's original analysis was correct, as was his strategy: We must not distinguish between the terrorists and their national supporters. Hence we need different strategies for different enemies, but we need to defeat all of them.

Afghanistan was the classic example, because the Taliban regime was at once home to, and sponsor of, al Qaeda. Al Qaeda attacked us on 9/11, and we responded against the terrorist organization and against the regime that supported it. Once the Taliban had been destroyed, and al Qaeda had been shattered, President Bush launched a political strategy: support the creation of a free Afghanistan, implant the basic institutions of democratic civil society, work toward free elections so that Afghans could freely govern themselves.

Call it democratic revolution.

That was supposed to be the model for the rest of the war, and it was the right strategy. Use military force where necessary, against both the terrorists and the sponsoring regimes, and support democratic revolution. The whole region understood that strategy, and you could see the consequences. There were pro-democracy demonstrations, even in the most unexpected places, such as Damascus and Riyadh, where none had been seen in human memory. In Iran, where the democratic opposition had shown its passion for several years, the tempo increased. And all the terror masters, in Baghdad, Tehran, Damascus, and Riyadh, trembled, fearing that their moment of power and glory was about to pass.

The president clearly understood both the stakes and the opportunity. The "Axis of Evil" was — and is — very real, as the tyrants of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea knew full well. There is now abundant evidence of the close cooperation among them, and with their Libyan, Syrian and Pakistani friends, ranging from nuclear projects to other weapons of mass destruction, and to vital support (sometimes in tandem, sometimes separately) to the terror network.

The terror masters also knew that their greatest threat came from their own people, who were disgusted at the oppressive and corrupt dictatorships, and who saw the United States as the source of their imminent liberation.

Again, the president described the situation well: Time was not on our side, for delay would enable our enemies to regroup and plan for the next challenge. I kept imploring "faster, please," because it was luminously clear that the terror masters were planning for the battle of Iraq. They publicly announced that they would attempt to do in post-liberation Iraq what they had previously accomplished in Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s: Use a combination of terror, kidnapping, and political/religious agitation to break our will, drive us out, and expand their own power.

The terror masters could not possibly stand by and permit an easy triumph in Iraq, for that would seal their own doom. For them, the battle of Iraq was an existential conflict, the ultimate zero-sum game. If we won, they died. But, blinded by our obsession with Iraq, we did not see it. For once, the president's intuition failed him. This failure to recognize the enormity of the stakes, and hence the intensity of the coming assault, was heartbreaking, for us and the other members of the Coalition, and for the Iraqi people. It was the ultimate intelligence failure, a pure failure of vision.

Had we seen the war for what it was, we would not have started with Iraq, but with Iran, the mother of modern Islamic terrorism, the creator of Hezbollah, the ally of al Qaeda, the sponsor of Zarqawi, the longtime sponsor of Fatah, and the backbone of Hamas. So clear was Iran's major role in the terror universe that the Department of State, along with the CIA one of the most conflict-averse agencies of the American government, branded the Islamic Republic the world's number one terror sponsor. As it still does.

Moreover, the Islamic Republic was uniquely vulnerable to democratic revolution, for, by the mullahs' own accounting, no less than seventy percent of the Iranian people hated the clerical fascist regime in Tehran, and hundreds of thousands of young Iranians had shown a disposition to challenge their oppressors in the streets of the major cities. Had we supported them then and there, in the immediate aftermath of Afghanistan, when the entire region was swept by political tremors of great magnitude, the evil regime might well have fallen, thereby delivering an enormous blow to the jihadis all over the world. I do not think we would have needed a single bomb or a single bullet.

So be it. God created profoundly fallible creatures on this earth, and human history is mostly the story of error and accident. There are many battles ahead, and we may yet engage on the full battlefield. One thing is certain: There will be no peace in Iraq so long as the terror masters rule in Damascus, Riyadh, and Tehran. Those who attended closed discussions with the Iraqi defense minister a week ago heard a long list of evidence and cries of outrage against the murderous mullahcracy next door, and even though the leaders of the West — sadly including some of our own — continue to pretend that diplomacy may yet settle things in the Middle East, they cannot possibly believe it. This is a fight to the finish, still a zero-sum game.

The main problem remains the failure of vision, never more evident than in the first presidential debate. The president dismissed the question about Iran by talking only about the nuclear "issue," while Senator Kerry, incredibly, restated his belief that the same policy that failed to deter North Korea would somehow work with the Iranians. The president knows who the Iranians are, while the senator is an active appeaser. But neither was inclined to deal with the central issue, which is that the Iranians, the Syrians, and the Saudis are killing our men and women in Iraq, and we are playing defense, which is a sucker's game.

In the past week, the Iranian people have again taken to the streets in every major city in the country. The chatterers pay no heed, because there is only one zero-sum game that interests them, which is the election, and the election is about Iraq, or so they say.

Except that it isn't, really. It's about the war. The real war, the regional war, the war they are waging against us even if we refuse to acknowledge it.

Faster, damnit."

Posted by ActivistChat.com at October 23, 2004 05:57 AM

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Comments

I agree, but you need to explain in details what a US President should do as a "concrete action" .

You know, some ignorant people interprete this as a call for a war against Iran.

Posted by: Stefania at October 23, 2004 08:15 AM

Although i don't advocate violence, i think that we (meaning the West ) should fund the opposition, both inside and outside Iran and even give them weapons.

But, i start thinking that, even if the US acts alone,the regime would survive cause half a world is doing business with the Mullahs.

Europe, Japan and Australia should cease their support for the Mullahs, otherwise i fear that action by the US alone is not going to change anything.

A regime falls when it is isolated from the entire world.

What keeps the regime in the power is the money of the EU,Japan and Australia.

Also, i think that if the Iranian military take the side of the people, it would be the end for the Mullahs.

Posted by: Stefania at October 23, 2004 08:18 AM

The most important thing to remember is that this is an election year and that the US is at war in both Afghanistan and Iraq. both candidates are seeking to be elected/reelected and really do not wish to increase their political exposure by engaging Iran as a potential political landmine.

Second, Iran is truly dangerous and politics aside, I really doubt whether the US can muster the political will at present to confront Iran in view of the present military picture. I hate to say it, but Iran developing nuclear weapons, and even using one, would likely be a necessary precondition for any meaningful action by the US against the mullahs. Do not try to rationalise this posture, because it is not rational. WWII did not just happen, we blundered into it.

Posted by: Mark McGilvray at October 23, 2004 07:54 PM

The damnable thing is, we can't be certain that a second Bush term will commit to regime change in Tehran.

But we CAN be certain that a Kerry presidency will NOT.

Posted by: Asher Abrams at October 24, 2004 09:46 AM

We have to keep the pressure on Washington to get serious. The regime's continued attacks on US and Iraqi forces are unacceptable - morally, strategically, and (for the Administration) politically. President Bush will have to do something early in his (G-d willing) second term. US citizens must let him know that the support and the willpower exist to go through with the ONLY real solution to the problem. Activists elsewhere should keep the pressure on their governments as well.

Posted by: Asher Abrams at October 24, 2004 09:50 AM

Kerry will not orchestrate change in Iran. He has made his positions clear enough that he would leave such actions to the UN and a world coalition. One thing we have learned clearly in last four years: the UN does not have the will or fortitude to affect such important humanitarian changes, even when the scale is much smaller.

I feel confident that Iran was very much on the Bush administration's plans for post-Iraq but the weak-kneed world community and American "liberals" have almost scuttled those plans. And why? For the biggest naesayers in the UN Security Council, it was kickbacks and bribes from Saddam. For the American left, it was a chance to gain a political advantage.

Colossal greed has threatened the future freedoms of millions of Muslims, strengthened the terrorists, and left Western govennments more vulnerable than ever.

I believe that Iran is still very much on the Bush administration's calendar but the effort has been set back years. For Bush to discuss it now in this political environment would have nothing but detrimental effects for the future of the Iranian people.

Appeasing the Nazi's before WWII did not work. Appeasing the terrorists now will not be any more effective. This lesson has been taught over and over throughout history. It is incredible that humankind remains so ignorant of our own past.

Posted by: Sharla at October 24, 2004 12:15 PM

Support from another source:

One Small Detail

Posted by: Asher Abrams at October 24, 2004 06:47 PM

Direct link:
One Small Detail

Posted by: Asher Abrams at October 24, 2004 08:26 PM

I can hazard a guess as to why President Bush has not made Iran a "front burner" issue heading into the elections.

Until the elections he has political cover provided by the European powers who are "negotiating" with the regime of Iran. The whole goal is to get re-elected and he won't bring up Iran because it isn't a winner with those who might be persuaded to cast their vote for him. His base would welcome a tougher public stance towards Iran; however, it might drive off voters who are leaning towards re-electing him. So as a compromise he makes sure his language and tone leaves little doubt in his supporters that he will approach Iran much more toughly in a second term without specifically mentioning particulars.

Also I'd find it hard to believe, at this time, if the U.S. did not have agents already inside Iran gathering intelligence information. Being in control of a majority Shiite nation, a nation that remembers the wars between their mad dictator with Iran's mad mullahs, you have to consider it a strong possibility that some number of Iraqi nationals - and possibly even Iranian nationals or other foreign nationals - are currently providing the U.S. and its coalition with intelligence information from within Iran. I think an understated aspect of the current war with Iraq has been the intelligence gathering effort. The best stance for any intelligence organization is to publicly portray weakness and impotence, as the U.S. did prior to undertaking operations against Iraq. For the President to speak in particular terms regarding Iran at this time would leave him open to possibly revealing information to put the mullahs' guard up even more than it is.

Finally, President Bush has a habit of letting his opponent think he has the upper hand before moving against him. It's the classic poker player's mindset: to win the big pots you need your opponents to believe that they can win the hand. Otherwise your winning hand will only gain you a small pot. I think Iran's government understands this. Hence their public pronouncements that they either don't care who wins the election, and even going so far as to indicate a preference for President Bush since the Democrat party has treated them so poorly in the past. It's a version of "speak softly and carry a big stick".

Of course this is all just a guess. It is possible, I suppose, that the President is as intellectually limited and unsophiscated as the press - both domestic and international - portray him to be.

Posted by: Anon at October 25, 2004 10:24 PM

I agree with all of the previous reader's comments. The US has overthrown two regimes - in Afghanistan and Iraq - in as many years; it can hardly have escaped the Government's notice that those two nations also border Iran on either side.

Encouraging our enemies to misunderestimate our strength and our intentions is both strategically smart, and very much in keeping with the Chief's style. I believe that while the mullahs are playing games with the kindergarten kops of the EU, President Bush is biding his time until he receives the mandate to take the battle to this enemy.

Posted by: Asher Abrams at October 25, 2004 11:45 PM

Upon Reading Article:
I suspect due to the elections We (the US) are in a holding pattern. I support Bush, however he has been much too weak in addressing Fallujah and Sadr City.
As I may have stated before, Our lawmakers need to untie the arms of those inside and outside Iran, so as to foster violent resistance. AND Back them up.
It's not being said, but a Draft will be needed of pre-trained personnel, such as police and military support, as well as College trained individuals.
I am resentful of how the US Govt. is treating those who want to help like children that should be neither seen or heard. The US should be using ALL the skilled rescources available to it. NOT just a select few companies.
This has to be a TOTAL War Effort remaniscent of WWII, where the entire might of our country is brought to bear against those who would seek to destroy us, and their own countrymen, in the name of Power and Greed masked in Religion.
Also by opening up the range of ages that are able to fight, you would have a less immediate need of a Draft.
One other thing, If we are not gathering intelligence on the internet then we should be sending worms into Terrorists' Servers. As far as N. Korea they should be heated to a temperature of 35,000 degrees. I'm sick of their SH*t. Nuke 'em!

Posted by: meridian leeweather at October 26, 2004 11:24 AM

I have thought since the axis of evil speech that taking out Saddam was a prelude to taking down the mullahs at a later date. Make no mistake, the war on terror leads straight to Tehran. I believe you will see the beginings of a new democratic life in Iran by the end of Bush's second term. Help is on the way.

Posted by: curtis arthur at October 26, 2004 08:22 PM

I believe John Kerry has failed to mention Iran because he has no intention of doing anything about it except as part of an international effort. Since he does not yet know how the international community would respond to a suggestion to put pressure of any kind on Iran he is unwilling to articulate a position. That might make him accountable and we know how he feels about that. I get the sense that no matter what the case he would be reluctant to kick the bee's nest that is Iran. I am willing to believe that John Kerry would indeed respond to a direct attack but have difficulty imagining him supporting any significant provocative action against Iran. His history is one of avoiding conflict.

I expect President Bush is fully aware of the threat that is posed by Iran. His problem is the impending election. Iraq is his Achilles heel and he'd be foolish to even hint that any sort of conflict with Iran was on his mind. However, I suspect it is indeed on his mind and, if re-elected, he'll start dialogue on Iran in the near future.

The good news is that Iran is sandwiched between Afghanistan and Iraq. This is, it is physically situated in an optimal place to be effected by the spread of regional democracy. I would hope that the administration would try to promote an internal revolution as opposed to another all out assault. On the other hand, I would support an attack if it came to that. Iran cannot be allow to posses nuclear weapons. The Mullah's are precisely the type who would use them.

Michael

Posted by: Michael Kasun at October 28, 2004 04:07 PM

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