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What happens next?

 
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toaster



Joined: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 6
Location: Washington, DC, USA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2004 11:05 pm    Post subject: What happens next? Reply with quote

I've been reading this board with much interest over the past few days, and am very excited and hopeful about the prospects for a new, free Iran. I'd like to thank everyone who's been helping to get this news out.

My question is this: what's the next step? If Khameini and the guardian council flee the country tomorrow and take refuge in Riyadh, what will the transition be? Would the elected government collapse as well? What would happen in local governments - would the bureaucracies be able to transition to a true democacy, or would they disappear as well?

I'm asking out of curiosity, since I know little of the day-to-day situation in Iran, and to spark some discussion on this issue. There are some dangerous post-revolution scenarios that could happen, ranging from a complete power vacuum to an organized guerrilla movement of ex-Revolutionary Guardsmen aligned with al Qaeda fighters attacking infrastructure targets and institutions of the new government.

In short, how can we ensure that a free Iran is also a stable one?
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9karevatan



Joined: 16 Jan 2004
Posts: 843

PostPosted: Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

we dont care.......at least i dont care who takes these ppls place....


as long as i dont see a single mullah in iran.........i will be sooo happy Very Happy
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redemption



Joined: 30 Dec 2003
Posts: 1158
Location: California

PostPosted: Thu Mar 18, 2004 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most certainly the transition will be totally different than in Iraq - namely because the population is overwhelmingly anti-regime, pro-US, and quite educated and politically savvy.. The Iranian people know who the butchers are and they will all be dealt with when the regime falls and they will be able to trasnition quite quickly... They won't be like a bunch of Iraqi monkeys trying to figure out what to do.. at least I don't believe so..
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RANT



Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Posts: 7

PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2004 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm interested in hearing from any Iranians (or close friends of) involved in the revolution.

A question:

Is the presence of Coalition soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan serving to embolden the freedom movement in Iran? What effect will it have if forces are withdrawn prior to the downfall of the Iranian government?
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Mr. E. Train



Joined: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Location: right behind you

PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2004 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one question no one will wonder about is where the current leaders of Iran will head when their government falls..... FRANCE

Let their exit be swift and soon in coming. Death to tyrants, death to facists, death to bigots and and those that oppress and steal from those they are sworn to lead and protect! HEY MULLAHS...
NEVER give up the fight!
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Rocky



Joined: 19 Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Location: USA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2004 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RANT wrote:
I'm interested in hearing from any Iranians (or close friends of) involved in the revolution.

A question:

Is the presence of Coalition soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan serving to embolden the freedom movement in Iran? What effect will it have if forces are withdrawn prior to the downfall of the Iranian government?


Sorry not Iranian but an analogy can be made with the Poland of Lech Walensa that emboldened the eastern european block. Similarly, Syrian anti-Baath protesters are now coming to the fore. The Iraqi democratic potential, more than the coalition soldiers, is a shreiking alternative to oppression, brutality and oligarchy.
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redemption



Joined: 30 Dec 2003
Posts: 1158
Location: California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2004 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Question is, will freedom prevail? We must be vigilent as hell if we wish it to be successful!!!!
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asher



Joined: 03 Mar 2004
Posts: 305
Location: Portland, Oregon

PostPosted: Sun Apr 18, 2004 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we can get Bush back for a second term, G-d willing, I think the mullahs are going to find themselves next on the list for the crosshairs treatment.

I know some Iranian activists have been hesitating to endorse Bush because "he hasn't done anything for us yet". I understand that reasoning, but even the President of the United States can't do everything at once. If he talks too freely about "regime change" in Tehran, he'll be biting off more than he can chew with Iraq still a live-fire zone and Afghanistan struggling to get on its feet.

As a second-term President, though, he will have less to lose and he will be free to act even more boldly. I have no doubt that he's already made his plans for Iran. A recent book asserted that Bush had planned the Iraq invasion from the beginning (making it sound like that's a BAD thing!) and he's probably thinking in similar terms about Iran.
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stefania



Joined: 17 Jul 2003
Posts: 4250
Location: Italy

PostPosted: Sun Apr 18, 2004 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree 100% with you ,Asher..

Wink
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