[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[stefania]

Can the EU Afford to Underestimate the Threat Posed by the Islamic Republic?

March 07, 2004
Iran va Jahan
Darius Dana

http://www.iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2004&m=03&d=07&a=5

The impressive boycott of the Iranian parliamentary election has put the European advocates of "critical dialogue" at an awkward position. It will no longer be easy for the EU to claim to be encouraging indigenous reforms in Iran when the last elements of the supposed reformist movement have been chased out of the system. Of course the temptation to continue to cut deals with the theocracy will always be there. What better way to build thriving economies than trading with a desperate dictatorship willing to dish out just about any trade incentive in return for "turning a blind eye" to its abuses of human rights and violations of international law?! It's an ironic dilemma indeed; A young union of nations bound by a firm belief in liberty and democracy on one side and a medieval, oil-rich theocracy with no respect for the civilized world on the other. These unlikely partners are drawn to one another by very different reasons. For the EU, the attraction is commercial gain, but for the Iranian regime the stakes are much higher. With Washington piling up the pressure and growing unrest at home, the mullahs need the EU for their political survival. Be that as it may, there are at least three practical reasons why the EU should refrain from throwing a lifeline to the Islamic Republic.

1 - Islamic Republic's Stability

Although the Islamic Regime seems fairly stable now, it has never been weaker in its 25 year history. The departure of the so called reformist faction means that the whole weight of the system lies on the back of a few aging and insecure mullahs totally out of touch with the popular mood inside the country and ignorant of the realities of the modern world. Put the spiraling rates of poverty, unemployment, prostitution and addiction together with the regime's inability to create jobs or hope for the young who constitute 70% of Iran's fast growing population, and you'll soon come to realize that the mullahs are fighting a losing battle. The right wing power brokers of Iran simply lack the flexibility and intelligence to formulate any rational policies in domestic or foreign affairs. Paranoid as ever with the "plots of the enemies", the mullahs have increased repression at home while turning to yet more terrorism abroad. Hardly a safe environment for trade and commerce!

2 - EU and Iranian Perceptions

Britain, France and Germany are already mistrusted by most Iranians of all classes and backgrounds. The general perception amongst most Iranians is that the EU trio are ignoring the demands of the vast majority of Iranian people and are engaged in appeasing their oppressors for commercial gain. The failure of EU to make a clear stand on the issue of human rights has caused most Iranians to look to the US for inspiration and support. It is said that "seeing is believing"; What Iranians see these days is the obscene spectacle of cordial embraces and handshakes between EU foreign ministers and the most hawkish elements of the Islamic Republic who're directly responsible for the arrest, torture, and murder of Iranians. Insisting on such unwise policies will go a long way in downgrading the EU trio from "misguided rivals" to "colonial adversaries" in the eyes of Iranian people and opposition. It's always hard to predict the future, but most analysts agree that Iranian society is reaching boiling point and that some kind of change in the Iranian political scene is likely. In the event of such change, it is plausible that the prevailing forces most likely to be of secular and nationalist nature, will seek to retaliate against the EU for its support of the Islamic Republic. A future Iranian government of almost any complexion will probably seek to sideline the EU by favoring the US for strategic partnership and trade.

3 - A Pattern of Deception and Lies

The size and scope of Iran's nuclear program and the ever increasing evidence of a grand deception by the mullahs will only serve to embarrass the advocates of dialogue in Europe. The European visionaries who beat the drums of a "multi-polar world" can not afford to ignore the fact that some regimes do not play by the rules. The old school of "deterrence" and "balance of power" only apply to those who appreciate the limits and understand the rules. Both the well intentioned and the cynical EU decision makers are well advised to read through the short and bloody history of the Iranian revolution. They will find a disturbing tale of broken promises and deception on a grand scale; A revolution whose leaders promised a nation freedom and democracy, but unleashed death and destruction upon them once they grabbed power; A regime that compromises only when it's under serious threat and flouts international law when it's not; A regime whose leader is regarded as the "biggest predator of press freedom" and a president that talks of reforms and democracy while on trips to EU capitals and condones public executions and torture at home. Can the EU really count on the goodwill of a regime with such history? Can the EU afford to underestimate the threat posed by the Islamic Republic?
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Referendum AFTER Regime Change

"I'm ready to die for you to be able to say your own opinions, even if i strongly disagree with you" (Voltaire)