[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[stefania]

Parsing Gerhard

February 17, 2005
The wall Street Journal
Review & Outlook
http://online.wsj.com/public/us


Two and a half years ago, while down in the polls weeks before a national election, Gerhard Schröder stunned everyone by lashing out against any "adventures" in Iraq. The anti-American bait swung the vote for him -- and, as hindsight shows, was the very first blow in the intramural dust-up over the war among the Western allies.

So this past week, down in the polls days before a critical state election, the German chancellor weighed in again on trans-Atlantic matters. "Uh-oh" is about right. If Mr. Schröder's words predict the future this time as well, the "new chapter" that Condi Rice called for in Paris last week won't be all that different from the old.

In a speech last Saturday in Munich and an interview with the Journal published yesterday, the German chancellor sought to preempt George W. Bush's goodwill tour to Europe next week. On nearly every issue, Mr. Schröder staked out contrarian positions. But it wasn't the substance as much as the tone that struck us: aggressive, confrontational and testy. In contrast, the U.S. and other European leaders, even the French, have gone out of their way to sound conciliatory since Mr. Bush won re-election.

Mr. Schröder trotted out the old chestnut that "poverty and underdevelopment" are the "root causes" of terrorism and trouble in the Muslim world. No mention of past tyranny, or for that matter the new hope that successful elections in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Palestinian territories have brought to millions of poor and downtrodden. There also was no concrete suggestion of how Germany, and "old Europe" can help millions of Arabs achieve their dream of freedom and democracy.

No, Mr. Schröder cautioned unnamed others -- no prize for guessing who -- against "public admonitions" of backward, dictatorial regimes. His top priority is "international stability and order." That's hardly in the same spirit, to say the least, as Mr. Bush's message to the Arab world that, "As you stand for your liberty, America stands with you."

With nary a nice word about the U.S. or the six-decade-old Alliance that protects Europe, Mr. Schröder saved his friendlier face for Iran and Russia. As Tehran moves toward building a nuclear arsenal, the German leader in effect endorsed Iran 's efforts to blackmail Europe. By the rules of this game, Iran will get economic and other payoffs, and build the bomb anyway. "I would wish for Iran to be offered more economic cooperation," the chancellor told the Journal. "What we need to do is to signal to the other side that if Iran fulfills the demands of the international community, this will have a positive effect on the return of the country into the community of nations -- political as well as economic."

What's more, he said in Munich, the mullahs' nuclear dreams reflect "legitimate security interests." So, in this view, the world's leading sponsor of terrorism shouldn't be hauled before the Security Council for building a bomb but welcomed into the family as a good global citizen.

Asked about Vladimir Putin's four-year campaign against dissent and democracy, the German chancellor chided "the West" for its lack of "understanding" for the Russian president. By West, he means the U.S., which (belatedly, one might add) spoke out against the return of authoritarian rule to the Kremlin.

Mr. Schröder insists that Mr. Putin "wants democratization," but "has to deal with a conflict in the southern part of his country, which wasn't started by him." No, but it was none other than Mr. Putin who re-started the Chechen war in 1999. And the Russian president wages it ruthlessly to this day, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. That consideration apparently pales to Germany's need for Russian oil and gas.

Germany's weak economy and military mean that Berlin's contribution to any broader Western effort in the Muslim world would be small no matter what. Most EU members will ignore the German leader, as in the past, and listen closely to Mr. Bush next week. But Mr. Schröder's comments are disappointing because he sounds so small, offering empty platitudes to his domestic audience with no effort to engage in a constructive debate. Much has changed since the German chancellor saved his political skin and alienated America in August 2002. But apparently not Gerhard Schröder.
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