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Open Letter to Akbar Gangi
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2005 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Rasker,

Regarding "late deciders" ...cudo's to those who have fought and sacrificed for so long, so that the rest of the Iranian people may lose their fear and join the march to freedom.

Take the fellow who's photograph was published, holding a bloody tee-shirt , landing him in jail for protesting...now he's the "poster boy" of the democratic movement, and on the run ...organising various groups inside Iran.

Sometimes the element of random chance has profound effect on the future course of history.

It is said that life is 2% what happens to you, and 98% how you deal with it.

That said, freedom in Iran will be determined by how some 70 million Iranians choose to deal with the regime...as sheep, or as heros.

There's an old US civil rights motto, that was used during the '60's, which it totally relevent.

"They have the guns, but we have the numbers."

Food for thought.
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Azadeh_55



Joined: 16 Jan 2004
Posts: 467

PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
An honorable person is the one who admits to his wrong-doings in the past, and ask for forgiveness; not a person that is in denial, and either thinks he didn't do anything wrong or it was such a small mistake that does not deserve forgiveness from the people he betrayed; which shows the mindset has not changed I will leave it at that, I believe most Iranians that are familiar with his past, would agree with my statement.


Baba enghadr bozorgesh nakon digeh. Gangi kieh? Arzesheh harfzadan ham nadareh.
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blank



Joined: 26 Feb 2004
Posts: 1672

PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Azadeh_55 wrote:
Quote:
An honorable person is the one who admits to his wrong-doings in the past, and ask for forgiveness; not a person that is in denial, and either thinks he didn't do anything wrong or it was such a small mistake that does not deserve forgiveness from the people he betrayed; which shows the mindset has not changed I will leave it at that, I believe most Iranians that are familiar with his past, would agree with my statement.


Baba enghadr bozorgesh nakon digeh. Gangi kieh? Arzesheh harfzadan ham nadareh.


I know he "arzesheh harfzadansh nadareh" but I like our American participants to know what many of us feel about the people who betrayed our country and now are becoming heroes/martyrs...
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well Blank, whether folks think Ganji is worth talking about or not , is really a moot point...they are.

I don't see evidence that your opinion is the majority one held by a majority of Iranians, but then maybe others realize he's done something valuable to cause a bright spotlight to be shown on the regime.

It seems like there's a little jelousy coming from some quarters.."Why Ganji and not us?"

So then let me just say that the opposition as a whole has a long way to go in resolving past animosities within itself...and better start now, or even after the mullahs are sucessfully removed, you'll have these animosities to contend with, failure to do so is at risk of having the STABLE future of Iran POST MULLAHS...ASSURED.
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excuse my ignorace but
"t seems like there's a little jelousy coming from some quarters.."Why Ganji and not us?""

Why Gani and not us what???




Ps
As long as the so called oppostion runs after the projects of IR you cannot call them opposion..
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In why are some like Gangi, put in a media spotlight and others arn't deemed worthy of western support....like the Mek.. espandyar.

Catch my drift here?
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is that the confused opposition is looking for something but they dont know what. They claim that they want to topple the regime at the same time they have their attention and their hopes in the regime current or previous elements.

Now If MKo is looking for away to get attention is not related to the original letter posted. However it takes political courage to come out with such letter and remind people who stands where!
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, I think they know what they are looking for...regime change....it's how to go about getting there from here that's the dillema.

I have yet to hear anyone pin their hopes on this regime...but if there are those who do, they don't post here...(chuckle).

MKO's problem is a matter of credibility, not just with the west, but with Iranians...lot of water under the bridge, and long memories.

It doesn't help that they claim leadership of the opposition...which is patently false....no one really is...and each group has their own agenda and vision not just in how to get there from here, but what happens after regime change.

You have folks who discount folks like Ganji, but you know....people can only change themselves....and Ganji at least realized his mistakes....and has paid for that realization...while still paying for the past.

Why do many in the west find the man worthy..calling for his release? because the guy has guts...and it's not just him....he represents all political prisoners by inference of his circumstance.

Take Batabi....poster boy of the opposition....there's guts....

Now the MKO has guts to take the fight to the regime....and in the end, that may be their saving grace, and reason for the Iranian people to forgive them for the past....and so it may be with Ganji as well..

Thing is, if one were to compare the division and "confusion" (as you put it) with the American revolution....our task was not so different...and by all reason...and logic....America should never have gained its independance and become a democracy.

But it did....and so will Iran.
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with you on MKO. They hane no credibility and sad enough majority have rather the Mullahs.

You state:
"ou have folks who discount folks like Ganji, but you know....people can only change themselves....and Ganji at least realized his mistakes....and has paid for that realization...while still paying for the past.

Why do many in the west find the man worthy..calling for his release? because the guy has guts...and it's not just him....he represents all political prisoners by inference of his circumstance."

People can change but not people like Ganji..You probably know that he use to punish ladies with bad hijab by sticking pins into their foreheads.
People like this can never become the decent human beings that you and I have in mind. What you hear as a cry for freedom is far from the freedom we have in mind. This is simply a power struglle and Ganji lost now he is paying the price. As you might know there are elemnt that are looking to establish a revised version of the Islamic republic by the element within the regime. By having these people in power they can still make their juicy deals. Believe me when I say none of these people abroad want a real democracy. All they are looking for is their own interest. However you and I know that by having a true democracy in Iran the world will be a better palce but I doubt that people in charge think that far.

Regards
espandyar
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well., I believe in a free Iran..Ganji would have to be held accountable for his past criminal activities...but if he served to spotlight the IRI abuses, that's not a bad thing today. Does that buy him forgiveness? probably not.

Yeah, I see a bit of a power struggle going on between Rasfanjani, Katami and Antar's gov. but this I think is mostly show....differing shades of black....and the west isn't fooled at this point.

It may take folks awhile, but at this point intent is clear.

It's also becoming increasingly clear to the west, and especially the EU, that any long-term self interest lies in a free and democratic Iran...it's getting there from here being the dillema, as much as it is for the opposition.

How does it occur without massive bloodshed, because waiting too long will result in massive bloodshed anyway.

Historically there is only one precedent to compare recent events in Iran to, and this is the rise of Hitler and the brown shirts in 1930's Germany....no one has forgotten the results of waiting too long to take action in that case....53 million died in WW2.
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2005 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

" Historically there is only one precedent to compare recent events in Iran to, and this is the rise of Hitler and the brown shirts in 1930's Germany....no one has forgotten the results of waiting too long to take action in that case....53 million died in WW2."

How doeas it look like so far? Apeasment and nothing more!
The recent AEI resolution is just a bluff and IR knows it.
The only reason Russia and China did not vote aginst it was becuase they resolution had been changed the way Russia and china wanted it.
IR knows for fact that when/if the dossier is reffered to the security council it will be vetoed. By that time IR has bought so much time that they either have the bomb or close to having it.

The what happens is that US is FORCED to strike the sites and probably will not hit all of them as many of them are hidden/underground hence the terrorist will activate all over the world.

This is excerpts from a article by John Hall:

IN MAY, 2004, Hassan Abbassi, a leading adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, announced:

"We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization and for the uprooting of the Americans and the English. The global infidel front is a front against Allah and the Muslims, and we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them."

Berman said he thinks Abbassi's words ought to be taken seriously.

dont you call this another ww?

Regards
espandyar
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2005 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for posting that excerpt....I am aware of it, as well as other similar statements....this is a GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM.

Thing is, all the posturing and threats didn't help Saddam or the Taliban...and don't you think if they actually had the capacity, they would have done so by now?

In addition, they've advertized their intent, and methodology....not real smart if you think about it long enough....

IRI seems to be begging the west to attack and invade, but dealing with the regime will be at a time and place and method of our choosing.

Saddam thought it was a bluf, Taliban thought it was a bluf....Iri thinks it's a bluf....let them think that.

I can assure you of one thing....if military intervention takes place, it won't be limited to nuclear sites....it will be total and unconditional surrender as policy, and implemented to that end...including any welcome support the opposition might muster up.

Takes time for things to reach that point though, and it isn't just yet....I find it sad to see that the opposition has been so divided it hasn't been able to effect regime change on its own....it's had the opportunity...and I think everyone knows that...

Whether the UN can be effective in resolution remains to be seen...and it may be a coalition of like minded nations that determines the outcome.
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear oppenheimer

I think you are making a mistake when you underestimate the Mullahs.
Iran is a very rich country and all the income and assets are in the hands of Mullahs, in contrary to post gulf war Iraq and afghanistan.
Besides they are already doing it look around you where do you think the terrorist are funded from.
Whenthe time comes they will do bigger things.

Quote:
I can assure you of one thing....if military intervention takes place, it won't be limited to nuclear sites....it will be total and unconditional surrender as policy, and implemented to that end...including any welcome support the opposition might muster up.


As I said earlier the Iranian sentiment could back fire on any agressor.
During the Iran-Iraq war people went to war to protect their homeland eventhough they hated the Mullahs back then as well.
Many of the opposition groups including MPG has said no to a military attack so any welcoming is unexpected.


People of Iran are able to topple the regime as long as they get the right aid!
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Oppenheimer



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 1166
Location: SantaFe, New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I think you are making a mistake when you underestimate the Mullahs.
Iran is a very rich country and all the income and assets are in the hands of Mullahs, in contrary to post gulf war Iraq and afghanistan."
-------------

I agree IRI is a different animal to confront, for a number of reasons...though in Iraq the income and assets were in the hands of Saddam...and in Afghanistan, after a long civil war and the effect on infrastructure, the Taliban did not have near the military resources Iran does.

Nor did Saddam after 12 years of sanctions, as far as military equipment.

Thing is, you assume a lot. I know what Iran's capability is, it's biological, chemical weapons...delivery systems...quite possibly a nuke or two that have been purchased on the black market (probably in pieces now for study and production design purposes)

The training of terrorists, and associated intent and methodology....

No, I don't underestimate the capability of the IRI....


Anyone looking at a map can see the "bookended" nature of the strategic position Tehran is in at the moment, with two fledgling democracies and thousands of US/coalition troops on its borders.
The reports out of the Pentagon regarding shaped explosive charges originating and shipped from Iran (of Revolutionary Guard origin), are but a manifestation of a coordinated effort between the regime in Tehran, Hizbollah, and al-quaida to ferment civil war in Iraq.
Tehran has been at "war by proxy" with the US since the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, and it may only be a matter of time before there is no other option left on the table except a military one to resolve the situation.
This prospect may terrify folks more than terrorism itself, but there's only one viable solution to effectively stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan permanently. It is quite simply, "regime change" in Tehran.
How an alternate "regime change" solution manifests is fully dependent on whether the international community has the guts to support a rather extensive opposition community inside and outside Iran as they have begged and pleaded with the international community to do for some time. Given that the other options; to do nothing or go to war ;are not quite as viable in solving the problem, nor the first options to contemplate, given the situation needs resolution and that war is the last option.

To this point, the only leader of free nations who's had that alternate vision of an Iran existing within the community of nations ...."in larger freedom", and had the guts to voice the option is President GW Bush...."..and to the Iranian people I say tonight, as you stand for your own liberty, America stands with you." The man presented possibilities to people in so doing, as a president will on occasion.

The IRI is fast pushing the free world to another alternative that could be far worse, if the IRI does produce a nuclear weapon before the people decide their own fate, and remove the threat both to them and the international community.

Now I hear a fair amount of talk that the US is just using this as an excuse to promote "regime change". But the reality is if the regime isn't changed soon, the mullahs who are willing to martyr 10 million recruits (as noted in IRI statements), and is on record of having an agenda of obliterating Israel off the map, would certainly be willing to use such a weapon on their own people to make it look for all intents and purposes as if the Israeli's or the US had just attacked them, thereby creating the needed justification for holy war. "Regime change" in Iran is really not up to us per se, and it seems a rather moot point as the Iranian people have spoken....it is in process, whether the international community supports it or not. But whether this popular movement is successful, or crushed, depends now upon free nation's support for the aspirations of liberty.

-----------

I think it is far more likely that both you as well as a lot of folks underestimate US capability....and that includes the IRI.

"People of Iran are able to topple the regime as long as they get the right aid!"

Aid can take a number of forms, including creating the conditions in which a divided and somewhat disorganized but fairly extensive opposition can be provided the circumstances in which to succeed.

As Cyrus indicated in one of his posts...some 70-80% think favorably of the US inside Iran.

Fears of invasion in terms of potential civilian casualties and IRI retaliation are concerns that both the US and the Iranian people have, in terms of any uprising against the regime that may ensue should war be declared (regardless of by who declares it first.).

So the solution to creating the conditions while maintaining that favorable opinion, at the same time as preventing the IRI from any retaliation for creating those conditions demands that both the creation of those conditions favorable to the opposition and the nutering of the IRI's capabilities happens simultaneously...nation wide.

All this at the same time preventing civilian casualties either through US action, or IRI intent to create a international incident and have it appear that the US is responsible (as in the above scenario).

seems like an impossibly tall order given the IRI's ability to wage conventional, unconventional (WMD) and asymetric warfare.

So if I were to tell you those conditions and the total nutering of the IRI could be complete within 30 minutes of the order being given, without a great loss of life as a result, you'd probably think I was being just a tad overconfident...right? (chuckle).

Now the opposition has been dreaming about shutting down the IRI through a national strike (as least in some quarters I've heard this is the intent of protests and local strikes).

If I were to tell you that by O (order) + 33 minutes, every single bit of military, industrial and civilian infrastructure would simply grind to a screaching halt...you'd no doubt say I was not just overconfidant, but nuts...right? (chuckle).

If I were to say that the only toys the IRI would have left to play with were the basic tools of infantry..a gun, grenade, and feet....and that the US had just leveled the playing field for the opposition since all comunication would be totally out as well....you'd simply say I was dreaming up some "conspiracy theory" ...right? (chuckle).

Well in one sense it is a theory, because it has never been tried before in practical application on such a large area. Nor has it been used in war for this effect.

O+ 24 hours involves the dropping of a ham radio, a "friendship cupcake", and a note to the ayatollah Khomenei to pick up the receiver and surrender unconditionally.....included in that note would be a complete list of estimated casualty figures for American troops...and Iranian troops...giving the casualty estimate for Iranian troops as "everyone".

The reason for the radio is because there won't be a single electronic component in all of Iran that is in functional condition.

Nothing...including electronic ingnitions in cars, or anything with a circuit board.

Lights out for the regime in every conceivable sense of the word....and it may be that US boots on the ground would be unneccesary, as we could simply come back on O + 48hr, and do it again if we had to.

And all of it is totally aside from any conventional airpower that may be employed against known missile sites, radar instalations, and military infrastructure as deemed necessary to prevent any hardened target that may have been missed being "defused"

I would note that since any and all civilian electrical grids would be affected, a lot of food would be in the process of spoiling, so humanitarian airdrops of MRE's, medical supplies, and other essentials would be in transit.

The Iranian people would be living in an 18th century living condition till the infrastructure was repaired, but I would think if war was inevitable...and I say IF...because it really depends on what the IRI decides in the next few months... and I'm not going to give you "Vegas odds" one way or another IF that will occur.....but IF it does, the US, acting alone if need be, can produce the results I just described, and considering the alternatives...I think the Iranian people would forgive the US for the inconviniance as a small price to pay for their liberty from the mullahs.

How?

Two words....Electromagnetic pulse.

Do a little research, and you will understand....why the IRI cannot win a war with the US, nor even lift a finger to stop it once the order is given, nor retaliate after.

Who knows, we may just seal the borders, airdrop the opposition the needed equipment, and let you folks sort things out for yourselves with the IRI, without US boots on the ground.

In any case, the threat the IRI poses will be dealt with, either through their diplomatic capitulation now, or their physical capitulation later.

Better stock up on canned food and candles now is my guess....
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espandyar



Joined: 15 Apr 2004
Posts: 236

PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good Read....

I agree with you that only a regime change can stabilize not only the region but the whole world.

I will do more investigation on your tactics but the question remains why were such hightech tactics not used in Iraq or was it?

regards
espandyar
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